Sunday 28 October 2012
OMG: A Romney Win say the Emotional Winds!
The four clouds on the left were generated by Pew Research in the US around Obama and Romney and their vice-president running mates, Biden and Ryan.
Obama is both GREAT and INCOMPETENT, HONEST and a LIAR.
Romney is ARROGANT as well as a LIAR and a CROOK alongside SINCERE, HONEST and GOOD.
So how will this play out and what can we expect on Election Day?
Even if you basically believe that Obama or Romney are GOOD, you cannot be ignorant of the contrary views expressed in the media or by your neighbours. This leads to an opinion that is not fixed but which is held on a sliding scale, one day up a bit, the next down. This is played upon by the campaign chiefs who aim to shift your position up on the scale for their candidate, while pulling the opponent’s down. They would not invest the multi-millions in TV spots if these shifts were not possible – although part of it is tit-for-tat – they do it because the other side are doing it.
But what if all the argument and counter-argument had an effect of making both sides and their supporters more ambivalent, less secure about their preferences and attachments? The thing about Ambivalent attachments is that they are very prone to influence from our inner worlds – particularly those influences which arise from earlier experiences.
What if too, your own inner world and its needs had an oscillating scale? If you felt more in need of appreciation one day you might value the friendly approachability of one candidate, if you felt strong and capable of ‘making it by yourself’ you might be attracted to the businesslike characteristics of another. You might wake up any day swinging one way or the other. Your state of mind is variable and this variation will combine with external factors to move you along the sliding attachment scale.
Romney’s clear triumph in the First Debate has tripped the ambivalence of potential Obama voters. That was evident from the Poll lead that Romney took after that debate – his first in the entire campaign. Many say that this was corrected by Obama’s slight lead in the second and third debates.
However, the experience of moving toward Romney has, even if counter-balanced by the second and third debates, not been reversed. In Debate One, Romney won, Obama lost. In Debates Two and Three, Obama prevailed – slightly.
Moreover, whatever else you think about Romney its clear that what expertise he has in in corporate turn-arounds and leveraging value. Americans might well feel that while the black guy is cooler and more like you and me, the white guy would make a good CEO. With the economy and jobs so much the key item on the political agenda, that surely bodes ill for Obama?
Thus, though it pains me to say so, the emotional drivers are still in motion towards Romney. His campaign should be saying the likes of:
“Probably, like millions of Americans you were surprised at the beating Mitt Romney gave President Obama in their first encounter. If asked to vote at that moment, millions of us would be voting for Governor Romney. As will millions on election day.”
Psychologically, such a statement reminds everyone of a confirmable fact, supported by a shift in opinion which lessens ambivalence. This can then be future-paced by making a contingent assertion: ‘as will millions on election day’. Just a short reminder of the power of suggestion built into language and how the Republicans could use it. Whether they will or not remains to be seen.
Reading the emotional winds, I must predict a Romney win!
The one hope for Obama is his on-the-ground operation and his team’s ability to get the vote out, always a vital element for the Democrats. Word is that this year they will far exceed 2008 in marshalling their supporters and getting them to the ballot. This is the area – on the ground bussing and phone reminders – where relationships could be the source of a result in Obama’s favour.
Posted by roy at 12:29 pm. No comments
Qualitative work was founded on the idea of making contact with people in greater depth. This website contains ideas, tips and techniques on how to do that well. It also contains things that I feel passionately about which affect our daily lives!
Read more about
Homepage Slider (22)